城市灾害相对承载力分析与模型的建立

Analysis and modeling of urban relative disaster-bearing capacity

如何评价城市系统综合承灾能力,这一直是被普遍关注也是较难解决的问题。在综合型可持续发展度评价模型的基础上建立的城市系统灾害相对承载力评价模型,为解决上述问题提供了新的思路。通过对城市复杂功能系统中社会子系统、经济子系统和环境子系统的划分及其相互影响分析,找出各子系统中对承灾能力的重要影响因素,进行加权整合后分别得出社会安全指数、经济"软"指数、环境指数和基础设施指数,应用这些承灾能力指数建立了灾害相对承载力模型。建模计算过程中发现因素量化方式的选取和权重的确定是比较重要的,会影响灾害相对承载力的合理取值,因此以经济"软"指数为例,提出了用协调度系数乘积代替原计算式值以使其取值范围在合理区间内的解决方式。

It is a popular but difficult problem that how to estimate urban integrated disaster-bearing capacity. Based on the integrative model of sustainable development estimation, the model of relative disaster-bearing capacity of urban system is established which provides a new thinking to soh＇e the problem above. Through the partition of urban complex function system into society sub-system, economy sub-system and environment sub-system and their interaction analysis, the sub-system＇ s factors which are important to the disaster-beating capacity are found and then put them into the model in the form of disaster-bearing capacity indexes such as society safety index, economic basic index, enviromnent index and infrastructure index after integration and quantization. It is found that the quantization method and weight determination are important to the reasonable choice of value of disaster relative- bearing capacity, so taking the economic basic index as an example, it is suggested that the coordination coefficient product could be used instead of the original formula value to keep it in a reasonable ranges.