改革开放三十年来我国经济发展的FDI效应分析

The Analysis to The Effects of The FDI in Economic Development in The past thirty years since the Reform and Opening-up

在对跨国直接投资理论的理解基础上,选取改革开放三十年来我国利用跨国直接投资流量与我国GDP的年度经济数据组成时间序列数据,经过协整分析,对我国利用FDI与我国经济总量发展的关系进行了模拟,模拟结果显示我国利用FDI流量与国民生产总值的数量关系成正指数性关系(GDPt^eFDI),FDI的利用对我国经济发展起到了拉动的作用,反过来,我国经济的良好运行同时又不断吸引FDI流入我国,两者呈互为因果、互相促进的关系。

Based on the analysis of the foreign direct investment theory, Granger causality and cointegration test are employed to analyze the time series data that formed by the thirty years GDP＇ s data and the FDI yearly data after the reform and opening up, on that basis this article tries to imitate the relationship between the FDI and the GDP, and result turns out that they present positive exponentially： GDP makes linear relation with e^FDI ,and FDI can promote our economic development exponentially in amounts, and our well operated economy may attracts even more FDI come to china, the resuit is they present reciprocal causation, any changes of anyone of them may cause another one change in the same direction.