基于因子分析法的中国民用汽车保有量影响因素分析及其政策含义

The Analysis of the Effective Factor of China's Civilian Vehicle Holdings and Its Policy Implications Based on the Factor Analysis

随着中国国民收入的稳步提高,民用汽车保有量在快速上升,但理论界对民用汽车保有量的研究既存在选取变量有限、信息丢失或遗漏等问题,又存在对其影响因素研究不足的现状。故选取2005年全国31个省市自治区的各地区国民经济核算、固定资产投资、运输和邮电、国内贸易以及人口五大类中部分项目的大量截面数据,在对影响中国民用汽车保有量影响因素进行相关分析的基础上,运用因子分析法率先得出影响中国民用汽车保有量的生产消费、交通水利投资、公路和批发零售四个相关因子,并讨论了促进中国汽车发展的政策含义。

With the steady improvement of our national income, civil automobile- owned are rising fast. But theoretical study has some problems not only on the existence of limited select variables, information lost or missing, and so on, but also on the factors that cause their study inadequate. Therefore, this paper select large number of cross - section data on the impact of China＇ s civil automobile - owned of 31 provinces in 2005, mainly about the national accounts, fixed asset investment, transport and post and telecommunications, domestic trade, as well as the population. And then use factor analysis method come to four related factor： ＂production and consumption＂, ＂transportation and water conservancy investment＂, and ＂wholesale and retail＂. Based on those analysis, we promote China＇s civil automotive policy implications. This paper, not only in theory, and results of the analysis in promoting the development of China＇s auto industry also has some practical significance.