人口增长率经典模型多元回归分析研究

Population Growth Rate Classical Model of Multiple Regression Analysis

文章对影响人口增长率的相关因素——老龄人口比率、城镇人口比率及男女性别比率等进行研究,运用多元线性回归方法分析了老龄人口比率、城镇人口比率及男女性别比率对人口增长率的相关作用.并且,对老龄人口比率、城镇人口比率及男女性别比率变化等因素分别用灰度模型做出分析与预测,从而得到人口增长率的变化规律.在此基础上,运用简单的Logistic人口模型对中国人口发展状况进行了预测.根据计算的结果,我国人口总量在近期内将仍保持在13亿与14亿之间.

The article on the impact of population growth in the relevant factors-the ageing population ratio, the ration of urban population and sex ratio, and other research, using multiple linear regression analysis of the ageing population ratio ,the ratio of urban population and sex ratio of the population growth rate Relevant role. And the ageing population ratio ,the ratio of urban population and sex ration changes in factors such as gray-scale models were used to make analysis and projections ,the population growth rate to he changes in the law. on this basis ,the use of a simple model of the Logistic population development of China＇s population was forecast. According to calculation,China＇s total population in the near future will remain at 1.3 billion and 1.4 billion between.