不确定性与我国农业多层次风险防范体系的建立

The Uncertainty and Establishment of a Multi- level System of Risk Prevention of China＇s Agriculture

由于农业生产的特点，发展中国家的农民面临着自然风险、市场波动、社会不确定性、国家行为与战争等不确定性。在我国，农民面临的不确定性主要是自然风险和市场波动。农民应对不确定性的举措可以分为事前应对行为和事后应对行为，但无论事前还是事后应对行为，都存在着一定的缺陷。要解决这个问题，必须在我国建立一个包括农民、国家、金融机构在内的多层次风险防范体系。

For the characteristics of agricultural production, the farmers in developing countries face such uncertainty as natural risks, market fluctuations, social uncertainty, war and state actions, etc. In China, the uncertainty farmers face is the natural risks and market fluctuations. The measures that farmers take to cope with the uncertainty can be divided into acts beforehand and responses afterwards. However, there are certain flaws in both. To solve this problem, a muiti- level risk prevention system including farmers, nation and financial institutions must be established in China.