期刊文献+

波动与增长:基于随机增长模型的认识 被引量:4

下载PDF
导出
摘要 在经济周期福利成本研究中,波动对增长的影响是人们争论的焦点之一。虽然大量实证研究表明许多国家的人均GDP增长率的均值与标准差之间存在统计显著的负相关关系,但缺乏理论上的说明。文章通过构建随机增长模型发现,随机冲击的增大不仅会使产出增长率的标准差增大,同时也使增长率均值减小。在数量上这就表现为增长率标准差与均值之间出现反向变化关系,从而为实证研究结论提供了一种说明。
出处 《统计与决策》 CSSCI 北大核心 2008年第22期23-25,共3页 Statistics & Decision
  • 相关文献

参考文献5

二级参考文献20

  • 1Anderson, T W , 1971, The Statistics of Time Series, New York: Wiley.
  • 2Black F, 1987, Business Cycles and Equilibrium, New York: Basil Blackwell.
  • 3Evans, G , Honkapohia, S and Romer, P , 1996, "Growth Cycle", NBER Working Paper 5659.
  • 4Gangemi, M A , Brooks, R D and Faff, R W. , 2000, "Modeling Australia's Country Risk: A Country Beta Approach", Journal of Economics and Business, 52, 259--276.
  • 5Hodrick, R J and Prescott, E C , 1990, "Post-war U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation", Working Paper, Carnegie University.
  • 6Mills, T C , 1999, The Econometric Modelling of Financial Time Series, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • 7Ramsey, G. and Ramsey, V A , 1995, "Cross Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth", American Economic Review,85, 1138-1151.
  • 8Yah Wang and Yudong Yao, 2001 ,"Measuring Economic Downside Risk and Severity: Growth at Risk", Working Paper, The Word Bank.
  • 9阿吉翁,贾依特.2004.内生增长理论[M].陶然等译.北京:北京大学出版社:10.
  • 10Loayza,N.,Hnatkovska,V.Volatility and Growth[R].World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series 3184,The World Bank,2004.

共引文献93

同被引文献23

  • 1刘金全,付一婷,王勇.我国经济增长趋势与经济周期波动性之间的作用机制检验[J].管理世界,2005,21(4):5-11. 被引量:26
  • 2李永友.经济波动对经济增长的减损效应:中国的经验证据[J].当代经济科学,2006,28(4):8-14. 被引量:31
  • 3Aghion P. et al.Volatility and Growth : Credit Constraints and Productivity-Enhancing Investrnent[J].National Bureau of Economic Research, 2006, Cambridge NBER Working Paper, No. 11349.
  • 4Blackburn K and PeUoni A. On the Relationship Between Growth and volatility[J]. Economics Letters,2004, ( 83 ) : 123-127.
  • 5Hansen B.E.Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis[J]. Econometrica, 1996, 64 ( 2 ) : 413-430.
  • 6Hansen B.E.Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation[J] . Econometrica, ,2000, 68 ( 3 ) : 575-603.
  • 7Imbs J. Growth and Volatility[J] Journal of Nonetary Economic,2007, ( 54 ) : 1848-1862.
  • 8Nelson R.Nonlinear Volatility Effects on Growth in Developing Economies[R].2007, Working Papers,No.16.
  • 9Ramey G. and Ramey V.A.Cross-country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth[J].American Economic Review,1995,(85) : 1138-1151.
  • 10Nelson J.Growth and Volatility[J]. Journal of Nonetary Economic,2007(54).

引证文献4

相关作者

内容加载中请稍等...

相关机构

内容加载中请稍等...

相关主题

内容加载中请稍等...

浏览历史

内容加载中请稍等...
;
使用帮助 返回顶部