武器装备虚拟采办技术风险综合评估

A comprehensive means for evaluating technical risk in the simulation-based acquisition model for weapon systems

技术风险是武器装备虚拟采办全寿命周期过程中的根源性风险,是导致费用风险、进度风险和性能风险的主要因素.针对武器装备采办过程中技术风险的非结构特性和难以量化的问题,在阐述了武器装备虚拟采办、技术风险、定性定量综合集成等概念的基础上,提出了一种定性定量综合集成的技术风险评估模型,并给出了详细的评估过程和重要步骤.最后通过防空导弹技术风险评估进行实例分析,表明该模型在实际运用中是有效的,具有实际应用价值.

When using simulation-based acquisition （SBA）, technical risk is the fundamental risk in the lifecycle of the process, particularly for weapon systems. Technical risk is a major factor leading to cost, time and effectiveness risks. Because of the non-structural features of SBA, it is difficult to derive quantitative measurements of technical risk in the lifeeycles of weapon systems SBA. To resolve this, the concepts of weapon system SBA were analyzed, including technical risk and comprehensive integration, then a qualitative and quantitative model for technical risk evaluation was developed. And evaluation procedures and a sequence of steps were established. Finally, to clarify the feasibility and effectiveness of the evaluation model, technical risk was evaluated for an air defense missile system.