摘要
北京汽车消费进入快速增长时期,主要是私人汽车消费拉动了汽车消费总量的增长。北京汽车拥有量、私人汽车拥有量与地区人均GDP、人均可支配收入和公路客运量高度相关。计量分析表明,人均GDP、人均可支配收入对北京汽车消费、私人汽车消费的需求弹性影响显著。从长期来看,私人汽车消费需求的长期弹性值均大于1,富有弹性。预测结果显示,私人汽车消费需求仍处于大幅度增长的范围。
The consumption for car is in a high growth rate in Beijing, and the total consumption for car is mainly brought along by the demand for private car. The possessions of car are highly related with per capita GDP, disposable income and highway passenger traffic. According to measuring analysis, per capita GDP, disposable income exerts remarkable influences of elasticity to consumer demand for car, and long-term elasticity more than 1 to consumer demand for private cai＇r. Forecast indicates consumer demand for private car will be in a high growth range.
出处
《改革与战略》
北大核心
2008年第11期173-175,共3页
Reformation & Strategy
基金
北京市教育委员会人文社会科学研究计划面上项目(项目编号:SM200610011001)
关键词
汽车消费需求
动态模型
预测
consumer demand for car
dynamic model
foreca
