贸易引力模型对中国新疆与中亚四国贸易流量的实证检验及出口潜力分析

Demonstration Examine and Trade Potential Analysis Between China and the Four Countries of Central Asia Based on the Trade Gravitation Model

文章采用2005年中国新疆及哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、土库曼斯坦、塔吉克斯坦四个国家的出口贸易流量的截面数据,通过贸易引力模型进行实证检验。实证表明:GDP、空间距离以及上海合作组织这三个因素对上述国家和地区间的双边贸易具有明显的影响。文章通过实际双边贸易额与模型预测贸易额的比较,对上述国家和地区间双边贸易发展潜力进行分析和估计。

The paper take the demonstration examine by the trade gravitation model with the export data of Xinjiang and the four countries of Central Asian： Kazakhstan, Kirgizstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. The result shows that the GDP, the space distance and the SCO are the determinant factors of the bilateral trade in those countries and areas. Based on it, this paper analyzes and estimates the trade potential between both sides with compare between actual trade scale and model forecast trade scale. It is show that Xinjiang, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have tremendous trade potential, and Xinjiang shall develop bilateral trade with the above countries.