基于C-D模型分析我国能源消费结构与经济增长的关系

Analyze the Relationship between Energy Consumption Structure and Economic Growth in China Based on C-D Model

本文从我国的实际出发,按照经济发展规律,对自改革开放以来较长时期的能源消费数据进行灰色技术处理,利用C-D模型实证分析了我国能源消费结构与经济增长之间的比例关系,得到的结论是促进我国经济增长的能源消费中煤炭的贡献最大,其次是石油、电力、天然气,这表明我国经济的发展高耗能还较为突出,能源消费结构也不合理。因此,一要以节能减排的理念调整我国相关的产业政策,二要加大新能源与可再生能源的勘探开发与利用。

Energy is the necessary material resource that maintains the survival and development of human society. Energy is the impetus headspring and material base of social productivity development. Thereby, the research of energy problem is an important subject. Based on the actual condition of China, the paper analyzes energy consumption data from 1979 to 2006 with the Grey system method in terms of economic development law. And then, C-D model is used to analyze the proportion relation between energy consumption structure and economic growth in China. Such conclusion is drawn： among energy consumption that promotes China＇s economic growth, coal have contributed a great, following by oil, electricity and natural gas. The result shows that economy development in China has been characterized by energy intensity with irrational energy consumption structure. Thus, on the one hand, it needs to adjust relevant industrial policy in terms of energy-saving concept, on the other hand, it is to increase the exploitation and usage of new energy and renewable energy resource.