中国外汇储备适度规模实证分析

Empirical Study on the Moderate Scale of Foreign Exchange Reserve in China

截至2007年底,中国外汇储备突破1.5万亿美元,建立计量模型对中国外汇储备规模进行实证分析表明:自2001年以来中国外汇储备实际规模一直大于适度规模。应扩大内需,酌情开征外汇交易税,适度进行汇率改革,以缓解外汇储备过快增长的局面。

At the end of 2007,the scale of Chinese foreign exchange reserve has reached more than 1500 billions US dollars. By setting up a econometric model to analyzing the China＇s foreign exchange reserve scale, the research shows that China＇s foreign exchange reserve scale is larger than the moderate scale since 2001. So we should expand the domestic demand, levy the foreign trade tax, carry out the exchange rate reform and change the economy increasement model to relieve the highspeed increasement of foreign exchange reserve.