人民币升值下我国纺织品进出口未产生明显J曲线效应的原因探析

Analysis on J-curve Effect on Textile Export and Import under the Backgroundon RMB Appreciation

通过应用2005年7月汇改以来的纺织品进出口数据,实证分析了我国纺织品行业的J-曲线效应的存在性,得出了两个结论:一是传统理论上的J-曲线效应并没有如期出在我国纺织品的进出口上,二是J-曲线效应很可能会在2008年下半年或以后出现。对其中的原因进行了分析并预测由于2008上半年人民币快速升值而很可能导致J-曲线效应。

We used data of nearly there years since RMB exchange rate reform from July of 2005 to conduct the empirical analysis of existence of J--curve effects on textile export and import. We drew two following conclusions： one is that the traditional J-- curve effects did not befall on as expected by some experts ; another is that the J- curve effects may take place at the second half of 2008 or after this time if the RMB appreciation continues to keep leaping forward. We analyzed the reasons and some policy recommendations on dealing with the possible J--curve effects caused by rapid RMB appreciation.