时间序列分析在重庆市小学生生长发育状况研究中的应用

Application of time series analysis in pupils’growth condition in Chongqing

目的:全面掌握重庆市小学生生长发育的现状和内在规律性,同时合理挖掘其生长发育的未来变化趋势。方法:首次采用传统的生长发育评价指标与先进的时间序列分析有机结合的方式,拟合适应现有小学生生长发育实际情况的生长速度指标模型并进行短期外推预测。结果:AR(1)模型能较为理想地描述小学生生长发育的现状,且预测精度很高。结论:(1)时序分析能理想地描述小学生生长发育的现状并能理想预测其未来发展趋势,应多加应用;(2)学校应切实关心与保障青少年儿童的健康成长。

Objective：To master pupils＇ growth condition in Chongqing and its rules and to research the development trends of them. Methods ：We applied the advanced time series analysis combined with two custom evaluation indicators of growth conditions to establish the models of growth condition and to predict the short-term trends. Results ：AR（ 1 ）model can ideally describe the growth condition of pupils and its prediction precisely was much higher. Conclusion： 1.Time series analysis can ideally describe the growth condition of pupils and predict its future development trends, which should be frequently applied. 2. Schools should take care of the health growth of youngsters.