能源结构的Logistic模型及其预测

Logistic Model of Energy Structure and Its Prediction

为合理、科学地对能源结构进行调整和优化,提出了能源结构的Logistic模型。由统计检验估计法,对模型中的经济增长系数及煤的需求最大缺口量进行了预测估计,并考虑了在能源结构中,油气的消费变化对煤炭消费的影响。依据中国统计年鉴2007年数据,定量地分析了未来20年能源结构的发展趋势,并提出了相关的能源对策。

In order to adjust and optimize the energy structure reasonably and scientifically, Logistic model of energy structure was put forward. By using statistical test estimation method, the economic growth coefficient and the largest shortfall of coal demand in this model were predicted and estimated. And the effects of the consumption changes of oil and gas on the coal consumption in energy structure were taken into account. Based on the data of China Sta- tistical~ Yearbook in 2007, the development trend of the energy structure in the coming 20 years was quantitatively analyzed. And some related energy countenmasures were put forward.