比利时CARAH马铃薯晚疫病预测模型在宁夏南部山区的应用

Appliciation of Belgium CARAH Model for Forecasting Potato Late Blight in Southern Mountainous Area of Ningxia Province

[目的]寻找适合宁夏南部山区应用的马铃薯晚疫病预测模型。[方法]采用比利时CARAH预测模型于2006年、2007年对宁夏西吉县马铃薯晚疫病进行预测并对田间发病情况进行观察，研究该模型的应用效果。[结果]采用比利时CARAH模型预测马铃薯晚疫病的发生更接近实际的情况，预测结果与田间实际发病观察结果时间误差仅2-3d。从有效防治马铃薯晚疫病的角度来看，宁夏南部干旱山区应采用4h湿润持续期评分的标准进行预测，它能更准确的反映田间病害发生情况，利用其预测结果指导田间防治更准确及时。[结论]比利时CARAH马铃薯晚疫病预测模型是适合预测宁夏南部山区马铃薯晚疫病发生的理想模型，可以直接应用于生产中。

[Objective] The aim was to search for the suitable model of forecasting the potato late blight, which was applied in the southern mountain area of Ningxia Province. [ Method] Potato late blight in the Xiji Country of Ningxia Province was forecasted by applying the Belgium CARAH model in 2006 and 2007, and the field disease condition was observed, then the application effect of the model was studied. [ Result] Using Belgium CARAH model of forecasting the occurrence of potato late blight was more close to the actual condition and the time error be-tween the forecasting result and the observation result for the actual disease in field was only 2 - 3 d. From controlling the potato late blight ef- fectively, the scoring standard for humid duration of 4 h should be applied in the southern arid mountain area of Ningxia Province to forecast, which could reflect the occurrence of the disease in field accurately and the forecasting result could be used to guide the field control accurately and timely. [ Conclusion] Belgium CARAH model for forecasting the potato late blight was an ideal model suitable for forecasting the occur- ance of notato late blight in the southern mountain area of Ninxia Province. which could applied in the production directly.