内蒙古东部气候变化及其草地生产潜力的区域性分析

Regional Analysis of Climate Change in the East of Inner Mongolia and Its Potential Productivity of Grassland

运用48个气象站点1961-2005年间的气象观测资料，在以聚类分析方法对内蒙古东部草原区进行气候分区的基础上，以ThornthwaiteMemorial模型作为草地生产潜力估算指标，运用典型相关分析方法分析了各区年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温与年降水量的变化特征及其与草地生产潜力趋势的关系。结果表明，在大兴安岭中部地区，气温与降水有不断增加的潜势，草地生产力增长趋势明显；而在大兴安岭南麓与西侧的草地区域，气候变化呈暖干化趋势，降水是草地生产力提高的限制性因素。

Using the data of 48 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2005, climate parts of grassland areas in the east of Inner Mongolia were divided with cluster analysis. Taking Thornthwaite Memorial model as calculation index of grassland productivity, changing characteristics of annual average air temperature （AAT）, annual highest air temperature（HAT）, annual lowest air temperature fLAT）, annual precipitati- on（AP） and its relationship with the grassland productivity were analyzed with the method of canonical correlation analysis. The results showed that increasing trend of air temperature, precipitation and grass- land productivity was obvious in the middle of Daxinganling Mountains; climate in the south and west of Daxinganling Mountains was becoming warm and dry, precipitation was one restrictive factor for productivity raising.