石油地缘政治格局的演变态势及中国的政策响应

Evolution of Petroleum Geopolitical Patterns and China's Policy Response

石油作为一种特殊商品,在地缘政治中发挥着不可替代的重要作用。世界石油供给与消费的地理分布及空间运输通道是石油地缘政治格局形成的基本条件,国家、地区和国际组织对三者的影响力和控制力是石油地缘政治格局的决定因素。未来石油地缘政治格局的演变呈多极化趋势。对格局演变影响力较大的国家、国际组织和地区组织主要有美国、OPEC、俄罗斯等,他们共同控制着石油世界。发展中消费大国的影响力正在成长,已经对石油地缘政治格局产生了较大的冲击。为应对石油地缘政治格局演变的影响,中国需要制订石油地缘政治战略规划,应对"一超多极"格局下复杂多变的国际关系;以多元化利用国外石油资源,减少对个别地区的依赖,分散风险,应对石油供应安全风险;充分发挥中国地缘政治优势,在上合组织框架内加强与俄罗斯及中亚各国的能源合作;加强与亚太地区主要石油消费国(日、韩、印)的合作,共同应对石油供应安全挑战;加大深海油气、非常规油气的开发利用的科学技术研究,应对未来油气资源短缺。

Petroleum plays a crucial and irreplaceable role in geopolitics. The consumption and supply of petroleum and geographic distribution of international transportation channels are the fundamental basis of petroleum geopolitics. The influence and control of these elements, which are essential to regions, countries and international organizations, dominate petroleum geopolitical patterns. The evolution of these patterns is multi-polar. It is clear that the entities which control global petroleum such as US, OPEC, and Russia, have a major influence on this evolution. With a distinct increase in petroleum demand and growing influence, developing countries also have an evident impact on petroleum geopolitical patterns. Concerning the evolution of these patterns, China needs to adjust its policies and take some countermeasures. First, a petroleum geopolitical strategic plan should be established to deal with the multiple uncertain international relationships in the ＂One Hegemony, Many Powers＂ pattern. Second, the diversified utilization of foreign oil resources, which is significant for reducing dependence on a single area and dispersing risk, should be taken into consideration to lessen the threat to petroleum supply security. Third, the nation＇s geopolitical strengths should be explored and energy cooperation with Russia and Central Asian countries need to be emphasized. Fourth, it is reasonable for China to pursue collaboration with major petroleum-consuming countries such as Japan, Korea, and India to jointly face the challenges of petroleum supply security. Finally, by way of response needs to expand scientific research on the exploration to the shortage of oil and gas resources, China and utilization of deep-sea oil and gas and unconventional crude oil resources.