突发地质灾害预测评价概论

Sudden geohazard prediction and evaluation:an overview

为了分析阐明突发地质灾害预测评价领域的一些模糊问题,探索预测评价的技术指南,试图将国际上滑坡风险评估管理的理论技术与国内突发地质灾害预测评价相结合,在概要分析突发地质灾害空间预测评价的基本理念、结构层次和核心内容的基础上,重点研究突发地质灾害预测评价的工作流程:强调基础性资料调查编录工作的重要性,提倡基础工作质量分级,初步提出基础资料详细程度分级依据;强调定性分析与定量统计、模拟计算评估相结合,提倡实用性技术方法和GIS技术的推广应用,初步提出地质灾害易发性、危险性和风险评估区划的基本原则、实用方法和等级划分标准。最后,简要讨论突发地质灾害预测评价的4个主要难点问题,提出定性分析与相对定量相结合的解决问题的途径,为突发地质灾害预测评价体系的建设和技术指南的编制奠定基础。

This paper aims to analyze some vague problems in sudden geohazard prediction and evaluation, propose a guideline for geohazard and risk assessments in China and try to combine the theory and techniques of landslide risk assessments and management abroad and sudden geohazard evaluation at home. On the basis of a brief analysis of the basic concepts, structure levels and core content of sudden geohazard prediction and evaluation, the focus is put on the study of the work procedures of sudden geohazard prediction and evaluation. The paper emphasizes the importance of baseline information inventory, advocates grading of basic work quality and preliminarily proposes the grounds for levels of detailedness of baseline information. Emphasis is placed on qualitative analysis and quantitative statistics and integration of simulating calculation with evaluation; the popularization of the practical techniques and GIS technique is promoted; the basic principles of geohazard vulnerability, danger and risk evaluation zoning, practical methods and standards of geohazard grading are put forward Finally, four key issues of geohazard prediction and evaluation are briefly discussed.