广东农村居民消费行为研究

Research on Consumer Behavior of Guangdong Rural Residents

本文根据凯恩斯消费理论,建立广东省农村居民消费性支出Ct关于农村居民人均纯收入Yt的回归模型,并通过利用农村居民消费价格指数这一指标,消除价格变动对实际货币购买力的影响。接着引入两个虚拟变量,考虑利息税和农村税费改革对居民消费的影响,并且对其进行经济意义的解释,深刻分析广东农村居民消费行为变化的原因。然后通过时间序列分析,预测出2008年和2009年的实际消费性支出,为相关的经济决策提供依据,并根据以上的分析结果给出了关于促进广东农村居民消费的建议。

According to the Keynesian theory of consumption, the paper establishes the Regression senting Guangdong consumers spending on rural residents to Yt representing Guangdong per capita Model of Ct reprenet income of rural residents, using the consumer price index to eliminate the effect of price changes on the actual purchasing power of money. Then the paper introduces two virtual variables, considering interest tax and rural tax reform on consumer impact, explaining its economic meaning and doing in-depth analysis of the consumer behavior change of the rural residents in Guangdong. At last, by time series analysis, the paper predicts the actual consumption expenditure in 2008 and 2009, provids evidence to the economic decision-making, and advises the promotion of consumption of rural residents in Guangdong.