低渗透气藏储量经济评价模型与应用

AN ECONOMIC EVALUATION MODEL ON RESERVES OF LOW-PERMEABILITY GAS RESERVOIRS AND ITS APPLICATION

在油气田对低渗透天然气储量经济评价中,主要运用内部收益率、净现值、净年值、投资回收期等技术经济指标。通过运用技术经济的基本原理,结合天然气的产能建设投资、销售收入和生产成本费用等实际情况,建立了低渗透气藏储量初始经济产量的评价模型,随机测试了相关数据,得到内部收益率与单井日产量、井深之间的关系数据。运用SPSS软件对这些数据进行多元线性回归,建立了内部收益率与单井日产量、井深之间的数学模型,为低渗透气藏储量经济评价提供一种简便的方法。同时,针对影响内部收益率还有很多因素的情况做了敏感性分析,得出了天然气价格为最敏感因素的结论。

Many technical and economic targets have been used in economic evaluation on reserves of low-permeability reservoirs,such as internal rate of return(IRR),net present value(NPV),net annual value,and investment recovery period.Based on the principle of technical economy,an evaluation model was built up on the initial economic yield of the reserves in low-permeability reservoirs,with the collected data from revenue,expend and investment on natural gas.By use of the software SPSS,those data obtained from this model were processed by multiple linear regression to build up a mathematic model on the relationship among the internal rate of return,daily production capacity of a single well,and the well depth,which provided a simple method for economic evaluation on the reserves of low-permeability reservoirs.Meanwhile sensitivity analysis were carried out on the factors influencing the internal rate of return and many other cases to conclude that the price of natural gas was the most sensitive one of all those factors.