转轨时期政府支出与居民消费关系的实证研究

The Empirical Research on the Relation between Government Spending and Private Consumption during the Transition Period in China

本文在代表性消费者最优消费行为理论分析的基础上,运用1978～2006年的经验数据,对政府支出与居民消费的动态关系进行了实证分析。结果显示:政府支出对局居民消费的动态影响取决于政府支出的结构和时期;而且政府支出对城镇居民和农村居民消费的影响存在显著差异即呈现出典型的"二元结构"特征。基于此,本文就调整政府支出结构促进居民消费增长提出了相关的政策建议。

Based on analysis on optimum consumption behavior of the representative consumer, this paper makes an empirical research on the dynamic relation between government spending and private consumption during 1978 to 2006 in China. The results indicate that the effect of government spending on private consumption depends on the structure and the period of government spending, which shows a typical ＂dual structure＂ feature on the consumption of urban residents and rural residents. Finally, this paper brings forward the relevant policy about adjusting government spending structure to promote the growth of private consumption.