中国出口商品生产效率结构与汇率关系的实证分析——新视角下巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应的解释

Empirical Analysis on Relationship between Efficiency Component of Chinese Export Commodities and Exchange

针对贸易品和非贸易品部门的生产率差异同汇率的关系,结合巴拉萨-萨缪尔森(Balassa-Samuelson)假说,本文使用状态空间表示的变参数模型和向量自回归模型中的脉冲响应分析,从长期和短期来相互印证两者间的关系。定量分析的结论表明,短期内巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应不存在,但长期中名义汇率的逐步升值将最终使得实际汇率升值。这很可能是由于二元经济结构中劳动无限供给条件下,可贸易品部门的购买力平价成立但有时滞所致,这为杨长江(2002)的理论提供了有力的经验证据。

As to the relationship between difference of trade department and no trade department and exchange, using time varying model based on state space and impulse response analysis coming from VAR, this article combines with Balassa- Samuelson hypothesis to innovatively authenticate their mutual relationship in the long run and in the short run. The quantitative result suggests that： in the short run Balassa-Samuelson effect does not happen, but the real exchange will appreeiate resulting from gradual appreciation of nominal exchange. It probably could be due to that purchasing power parity in trade department is established but lagging under the condition of unlimited labor supply in dual urban-rural economic structure. This supplies a strong empirical evidence for the theory raised by Yang Changjiang.