中国木质家具出口总量与结构预测建模研究

Forecasting models on quantity and structure of wood furniture export in China

该研究利用成分数据的理论和方法,对我国木质家具出口总量和结构进行研究,揭示了木质家具行业出口产品的数量与结构特征,构建了木质家具出口结构分析预测模型,从定量的角度揭示了木质家具出口总量和出口产品结构变动的趋势情况,并进行了短期预测。结果表明:卧室用木家具和办公室用木家具出口数量会继续增加,但增速放缓;而厨房用木家具和其他红木漆木家具则会持续小幅下降。这些数据反映了国外对我国木家具的需求总量和需求结构,通过对我国木质家具的出口总量和结构的分析,有利于把握家具出口产品的数量动态变化和结构变动规律,为我国木家具企业产品生产结构调整提供数量依据。

The authors used the theory and methodology of compositional data analysis to study the product structure of wood furniture export. The structural characteristics of wood furniture export and a short term forecast were carried out. The results showed that the export amount of wood furniture used by bedroom and office will continue to increase and the increasing speed becomes slow. The export amount of wood furniture used by kitchen and lacquer will go on a slight decrease. The analysis captures the essence of the structural change and shows the structural demand abroad for Chinese wood furniture. The results should serve as a quantitative reference for the furniture industry for wood future adjustment of the structure of production.