“中国制造”路在何方:兼论滞涨威胁下的对外经济政策

Way of Made-in-China and the Foreign Economic Policy under the Threat of Stagflation

当前中国宏观经济面临诸多难题,特别是对外贸易和汇率、外汇储备过多等问题。众多影响因素之下,中国作为世界工厂的地位受到威胁,形成了所谓的"中国制造"难题。本文通过分析新古典贸易理论,认为主流经济学的贸易理论不适合解释当前对外贸易中出现的问题;一个存在技术进步的中美贸易虚构的模型可以看出中美贸易导致中国贸易条件恶化的可能性。本文认为,要保持中国对外经济的健康发展,实现"中国制造"的顺利升级,必须保持独立的货币政策和提高名义经济增长率,唯此才能获得人民币升值牢固的基础和对外贸易的主动权。

China's current macro-economy is facing many difficulties,such as the foreign trade policies,exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.China's status as a world plant is threatened to made-in-China problem.This paper holds the mainstream economics of trade theory does not fit the current interpretation of the problems in foreign trade.Through a fictional Sino-US trade model we see the possibility of China's deteriorating terms of trade.This article holds that China must maintain independent monetary policy and raise nominal economic growth to keep healthy development in foreign trade and upgrade 'made-in-China'.