中国大飞机市场预测分析

The prediction and analysis of China’s big airplane market

中国大飞机项目的成功在很大程度上取决于市场的开拓,尤其是国内市场的开拓。虽然大飞机公司的成立在一定程度上体现了政府的意志,但毋庸质疑其未来的发展与成功最终还是要落到市场上来。本文采用了市场营销中市场细分的思想,将国内的大飞机市场分成了三个子市场,然后利用需求量宏观预测模型对各个市场在2004-2022年之间民用客机需求量的增长进行了预测并进行了分析,得出的结论是2004-2022年之间,国内航空公司对于民用客机的需求量增长主要集中在150-250座的客机上,因此在大飞机公司发展的初期阶段,鉴于其技术与资金上的限制,可以将其生产主要集中在该子市场上,然后再求进一步的扩大与发展。

The success of the big airplane project is largely determined by the exploration of the market, especially the domestic market. Although the foundation of the big airplane corporate is supported by the government, its development in the future is depended on the targeted market. According to the theory of market division, this paper divides the whole aviation market into three sub-markets and adopts the macro demand forecasting model to predict the demand level in each of the sub-markets during the period of 2004-2022. The paper concludes that during 2004-2022, the domestic demand of civil airplane from the aviation industry is mostly concentrated on the type of airplane with 150-250 seats. Therefore in the early period of project, considering the limitation of technology and capital, most of the effort should be focus on this sub-market.