技术进步对就业的影响:区域差异及政策选择

The Effect of Technical Progress on Employment:The Regional Differences and the Policy Choice

运用数据包络分析(DEA)方法测算了我国各省1990-2005年全要素生产率的变化情况,然后运用面板数据模型(Panel Data Model)对我国发达地区与欠发达地区技术进步对就业的影响进行了比较分析,并对两类地区技术进步政策选择与就业增长的关系进行了比较。研究表明,技术进步不管是对就业总量还是就业结构的影响,在发达地区和欠发达地区之间均存在显著差异;尽管技术进步对欠发达地区就业增长的总体影响表现为负效应,但教育导向型和科学导向型政策对促进欠发达地区就业增长有着积极的影响;欠发达地区通过加大对教育和科技的投入,最终能够实现技术进步与就业增长的协调发展。

The change in Total Factor Productivity （TFP） from 1990 to 2005 in every province in China is estimated by DEA model. The effects of technical progress on employment between developed regions and underdeveloped regions are compared by Panel Data Model. And the relations between the choice of technical progress policy and employment growth are compared in two regions. The paper explores that the effects of technical progress on employment amount and structure are different in two regions. And the technical progress exhibits a significant negative effect on employment growth in total in underdeveloped regions, but the effect on employment which is from the policy of education - oriented and science -oriented is positive there, and the coordination development between technical progress and employment growth can be come true by adding fiscal expenditure on education, science and technology there.