我国自然灾害类应急预案评价方法研究(Ⅲ):可操作性评价

Study on Evaluation of Natural Disaster Emergency Response Plan in China (Ⅲ):Flexibility Evaluation

从预案执行人员的角度出发,将可操作性评价转化为复杂性评价,并以国家地震应急预案为例,构建针对应急预案结构的可操作性评价方法。该方法由3步完成:首先,应急预案具有由描述性语言组成的特点,分析国内现有应急预案的组织结构,采用语句成分分析的方法对预案中的关键信息和行动进行提取与处置;然后,引入软件工程中的程序流转图,将描述性的预案文本转换为包含行动以及它们之间逻辑与层次关系的结构控制图;最后,借鉴度量软件复杂性的方法,定义了结构控制图的内部复杂度和综合复杂度等一系列指标,用于应急预案的复杂性即可操作性评价。评价结果可为完善和修订应急预案提供科学依据。

From practical view, the flexibility evaluation of emergency response plan can be translated into complexity evaluation. To achieve it, a complexity evaluation method is put forward by taking the national emergency response plan for earthquake as an example. This method can be divided into three steps. Firstly, through analyzing the organization structure of emergency response plan, the key informations and actions in emergency response plan are extracted by using sentence composition analysis. Secondly, by introducing the procedure flow figure in software engineering, the descriptive text of emergency response plan is transformed into structure control figure, which is composed of the actions and their logic and hierarchy relations. Finally, a series of indicators for structure control figure such as internal complexity and comprehensive complexity are defined by referring to the measuring method of software complexity. These indicators can be used to evaluate the complexity of emergency response plan, namely, the feasibility evaluation of emergency response plan. The evaluating results with this method can provide scientifie basis for the perfection and amending of emergency response plan.