博州地区1961—2006年太阳能资源的分析评估

Analysis and Evaluation about Solar Energy Resources in Boertala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture (Bozhou) from 1961 to 2006

根据太阳总辐射估算模型Q=Q(0a+bS1)按月确定了博州地区邻近站伊宁的a、b系数,将其对应于博州地区4个站点1961—2006年逐月太阳辐射的计算,据此分析了全地区太阳总辐射的时空分布状况,并对太阳能资源按行业标准进行了评估。结果表明,46a来博州地区的太阳总辐射呈明显下降趋势,整体上冬季减少的贡献率最大;太阳总辐射与总、低云量、相对湿度、雨雪日数具有较好的相关性;造成博州地区太阳总辐射呈下降趋势的重要气候原因是:平均总、低云量,相对湿度,雨雪日数增加的综合作用;博州地区的太阳能资源较丰富,其开发利用的综合条件较好。

According to the total solar radiation estimation model , the basis coefficients of a, b in Yining, adjacent station of Bozhou, have been determined monthly and applied it to calculate the total solar radiation of every month in four sites of Bozhou from 1961-2006, hereby to analyze the temporal-spatial distributions of total solar radiation of whole prefecture and to evaluate the solar energy resources with industry standards since 1961-2006. The results showed that the total solar radiation have presented decreasing tendencies in the past 46 years in Bozhou, as a whole the largest contribution rate of decreasing tendency to be in winter, moreover the total solar radiation has good correlation with mean total cloud cover, mean low cloud cover, relative humidity, rain and snow days, and that the combined, effect of increased mean total cloud cover, mean low cloud cover, relative humidity, rain and snow days is the important climatic reason for the total solar radiation to be decreased in Bozhou. The solar energy resource of Bozhou is abundant and the integrative condition is better for exploitation and utilization of solar energy.