使用NCEP数据分析新疆于田地震前异常增温

Analysis Thermal Anomaly Preceding Xinjiang Earthquake Using NCEP Data

美国国家环境预测中心(NCEP)全球再分析资料为监测地震异常提供了新的数据源。分析了2008年3月21日新疆7.3级地震前一个月的NCEP数据,发现2月18日06时(UTCS世界标准时间)在震中附近的断层带上出现温度异常,随后异常持续并向震中位置靠近。20日18时,异常区域完全覆盖震中位置,增温幅度达到7 K。21日12时异常结束。分析表明:温度异常区域与断层分布具有一致性,增温中心对应未来震中位置,增温幅度和发震震级可能存在对应关系,这对预测地震具有重要意义。

The reanalysis data of NCEP（National Centers for Environmental Prediction ） can be used as a new data source for monitoring anomaly preceding earthquake. The data of NCEP for one month before Xinjiang earthquake occurrence at 21 march 2008 was analyzed. It is found that the thermal anomaly occurred near the epicentral regions at 6 o＇clock 18th February （UTCS） , then it continued and moved to the epicenter, At 18 o＇clock 20th, the variation of temperature had reached 7 K and the abnormal area had covered the epicenter entirely, at last the anomaly ended at 12 o＇clock 21th. It can be known that the thermal anomaly area keeps consistency with the fault distributing. The abnormal center will correspond with the future epicentral location, This maybe has some relation between the thermal anomaly amplitude and the earthquake magnitude, The obtained conclusion will be have some important sense for the earthquake forecast.