我国基于技术受限的国家关键技术自主创新投资价值模型研究

The Investment Value Models of Independent Innovation in National Key Technology from the Technology Restriction Perspective

国家关键技术创新过程如何实施,成为摆在我国决策者面前的一个重大问题。然而,我国包括国家关键技术在内的技术发展活动处于一个复杂和特殊的国际环境中,国外技术强国由于各种原因,对向我国的技术出口设置了严格的限制政策。目前,国内对技术强国技术出口限制因素下的国家关键技术创新模式研究,在理论和方法上还存在着空白点和诸多难点。本文把技术强国对我国技术出口限制因素作为我国国家关键技术发展与创新考虑的重要因素之一,运用NPV方法、实物期权理论方法、外部效应理论方法、连续序贯投资决策理论等理论方法,研究了我国基于技术受限的国家关键技术自主创新投资价值模型。

The Chinese decision maker faces one major problem： how to put the national key technology innovation process into practice. However, all the domestic technological development activities including national key technology development are running in an extremely complex and uncommon international environment. The technological powers impose rigid restrictions upon technology export to China with various reasons. Currently, there is an untouched and difficult area in researches on the national key technology innovation model under the tough technology restrictions. This paper takes the technology export restrictions placed by technology powers as one of the most important factors, and introduces the Net Present Value, the real option method, the theory of exterior effect, the serial investment decision-making theory to build the investment value models of independent innovation in national key technology from the perspective of technology restriction.