2009年国际外汇市场展望——全球经济下滑与经济力量变迁的方向

FX outlook 2009, global downturn and the economic power shift from west to east

该文分析指出,由于世界各国的政策制定者都在积极地干预市场,次贷危机有望在2009年得到缓解。展望2009年国际外汇市场,除日元以外的亚洲货币将持续走弱,下半年才会有一定程度回升;市场发展将呈现经济去杠杆化、全球经济继续下滑、经济力量变迁等特征,而去杠杆化将有益于美元升势和日元走强。此外,因中国和印度正处于快速工业化的进程中,劳动生产率与结构性调整均获得了巨大改进,将有利于亚洲国家货币的升值。

This paper points out that policymakers are globally providing active support in the case of market failure and that subprime crisis is expected to get relaxed in 2009. The author also speculates about the international FX market in the year to come,claiming that it may have the following distinctive features： de-leveraging, global economic downtum and a shift in economic power from west to east, and that Asian currencies will not recover until the second half of 2009.In addition,China and India are rapidly industrializing, with great improvement in the scale of productivity and structural readjustment, which will lead to appreciation of Asian currencies.