防洪与社会经济系统协调发展预测及调控分析

Research on the Forecast and Regulation of Coordinated Development of Flood-control and Socio-economic System

从协调度的角度研究防洪与社会经济系统之间的关系,提出了防洪与社会经济系统协调度的概念,并建立评价指标体系和评价模型,对防洪与社会经济系统之间的协调发展状况进行评价。在现状评价的基础上,运用灰色系统理论的GM(1,1)模型对未来防洪与社会经济系统协调度进行预测。最后以鞍山为例进行评价及预测,验证了模型的实用型和可行性,并提出了促进系统协调发展的对策,从而为政府决策提供科学依据。

The relation between flood-control and the socio-economic system is studied in terms ot coordinated degree, the concept of coordinated degree between flood-control and socio-economic system is established. Furthermore, the appraisal index system and model of coordinated degree is advanced in order to appraise the coordinated development condition between the flood-control and so- cio-economic system. By using GM（1,1） model of the Grey System, the coordinated degree of the future is forecasted on the basis of the appraisal of the present situation. Finally, the practicability and feasibility of the model is validated by taking ANSHAN as an example, draws some valuable conclusions.