经济环境形势综合诊断研究

Comprehensive Diagnosis of Economy & Environment Situation

经济发展是造成环境污染的主要原因。经济环境形势综合诊断是基于环境指标分析经济发展中存在的问题,构建经济与环境形势诊断指标是判断经济环境发展趋势的关键,是宏观环境管理政策调整的基础。本文在分析经济环境系统关联的基础上,基于国家尺度宏观经济变化,从污染排放的空间、行业、增长速度等方面构建了包括三项集成指数的诊断指标,建立每项指标的支撑指标,并进行诊断标准划分。2005和2006年度COD和SO2的实证分析表明:污染排放的行业差异较大,经济增长速度过快,基于COD和SO2的经济环境形势不容乐观,经济的高速增长和发展方式转变缓慢将进一步加大实现主要污染物总量控制目标的难度。应重点依靠提升产业技术水平来推动中西部地区经济发展方式的转变,促进经济和环境的协调发展。

Economic development is one of the main reasons for environmental pollution. Comprehensive diagnosis of the economy ＆ environment situation based on the environmental indexes, could analyze the economic development problems. Establishing the diagnosis indexes for the economy environment situation is the key point to estimate the development trend for the economy environment, and is the basis for adjusting the macro policy of environmental management. Based on analyzing the correlation between environment and economy, the article proposes three comprehensive indexes from the space, industry and growth rate of pollution emission, builds the supporting index, and divides the diagnosis criterion. The example of the COD and SO2 in 2005 and 2006 shows that, in China, the rate of economic development increases at an excessive velocity, there are great industrial differences to the pollution emission, and the economy ＆ environment situation is hardly optimistic. The slowly transformation for the fashion of economic development increases the difficulties of realizing the total control targets of the main pollutants. In order to realize the balanced development between environment and economy, the transformation of economic development for the middle-west areas in China should be promoted by the advanced industrial technology.