中美两国选择不同时间开始减排二氧化碳的模拟研究

Implementation of CO_2 Abatement Policies on Different Time of China and US Based on Model Simulation

气候保护是一个国际性问题,气候保护政策的有效实施,离不开世界各国的共同努力。中国和美国作为世界上主要的两个碳排放大国,对世界气候保护进程具有重要的影响。本文通过建立一个多国气候保护宏观动态经济模拟系统,模拟中美两国在不同时期开始减排对世界主要国家经济和全球气候变化的影响。模拟发现,在研究中国减排进入时间的问题时,相对不减排情况,中国在讨论的五个情景里参与减排都会给中国的经济带来损失,而且越早参与减排,GDP损失的越多。世界其他国家都从中国的减排方案中获得了利益。和讨论的中国进入方案相似,美国实施减排政策与不实施减排政策相比,本国的累积GDP会损失,而世界其他国家累积GDP会增加。从对世界温度的影响来看,两国实施减排与不实施减排的影响程度较为接近。从对全球累积GDP的影响来看,美国的减排政策对全球GDP的影响要大于中国的减排政策对全球GDP的影响。

Climate protection is an international issue. The efficiency of climate policy depends on the efforts of all countries. As main carbon emission coantries, both China and the United States have important influences in the process of global climate protection. To evaluate the influences, this paper constructs a multi-country climate protection macroeconomic dynamic model. Simulation results show that abatement could make more GDP loss of China in any abatement scenario than that in the scenario in which China never performs climate protection policy. And the other five countries gain benefits from China＇ s abatement. Utility has the same results as GDP. Similar with China＇ s scenario, GDP and utility would lose for the United States in abatement scenario in contrast to the scenario in which the United States never performs climate protection policy. The effect on global temperature of abetment policy for two eotmtries is similar, but the effect on world GDP and utility of the United States abatement policy is larger than that of China.