中国未来20年资源与环境技术预见研究

Foresight Research on Resource and Environmental Technology of Future 20 Years in China

阐述了技术预见的定义和发展,对中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目"中国未来20年技术预见研究"中资源与环境技术领域的德尔菲调查结果进行了概要介绍和系统分析,得出了一些初步结论:①"深海油气与矿产资源开采技术得到广泛应用"在综合重要度中名列第一;②从技术课题的预期实现时间分布来看,主要集中在2015-2020年;③我国资源与环境领域技术的总体研究水平远远低于国际水平,只有少量技术课题具有世界可比性;④普遍认为美国是当前资源与环境领域技术领先国家,美国、欧盟和日本三者基本上占据了资源与环境技术领域领先的主要领域;⑤从技术发展制约因素来看,"研究开发投入"因素影响最大,其后依次是"技术可能性"、"法规、政策和标准"、"基础设施"、"人力资源"和"商业可行性"。文章最后提出了若干政策建议。

This paper first introduced the definition and development of the technology foresight, then gave a brief introduction and systematic analysis of the Delphi survey in resource and environmental technology which is a sub-project that belongs to the project of Foresight Towards Technology of Future 20 Years in China. Some primary conclusions were drawn：（1）the topic of The Wide Application of the Deep Sea Oil and Gas and Mineral Resources Exploration and Development Technology ranks the first in the index of the general importance;（2）Predicted time of realization are mainly between 2015- 2020;（3）the general R＆D capability of China at present is far lower than the average international level, though only a few topics are comparable in the wodd;（4）USA is generally regarded as the most advanced country in the world in the field of the resource and environmental technology, and EU and Japan are also the leading countries or areas in the field of the resource and environmental technology;（5）in the difficulty of realization, the research fund is the most important, and then feasibility in technology realization, policy, standard and law, research infrastructure, human resources and possibility of the technology accepted by the market. Some brief suggestions were put forward finally.