21世纪中国人口负增长惯性初探

A Preliminary Study of China's Negative Population Growth Momentum in the 21st Century

本文计算了中国1950～2006年期间的人口内在自然增长率,发现早在1990年时内在增长率就已经由正变负。并且通过该指标与人口自然增长率的比较发现,中国过去十几年的低生育率正在逐渐累积起人口负增长惯性。此外,本文基于不同的模拟方案结果揭示出,人口负增长惯性将会对未来中国人口规模和年龄结构有重大影响。本研究旨在说明,中国人口发展处于转折的关键时期,应当充分认识低生育率下的人口负增长惯性问题,有关人口决策必须尊重人口发展的内在规律。

China＇s population is at a turning point. By calculating intrinsic rate of natural increase over 1950-2006, this paper shows that the intrinsic rate turned negative in as early as 1990 despite the positive natural increase rate of China＇ s population. China has been gaining negative population growth momentum as a result of low fertility over the past decade. Population simulations under different scenarios demonstrate major impact of the negative momentum on China＇ s future size and age structure of population. Policy implications are discussed.