基于改进证据推理的变压器状态评估研究

Power Transformer Condition Assessment Based on Improved Evidential Reasoning

为评估研究变压器状态,在合理划分变压器状态和有效分析状态信息的基础上,根据状态评估指标体系具有层次性和模糊不确定性的特点,提出了变压器的状态评估模型以及一种改进的证据推理的状态评估方法。证据的初始基本概率赋值通过层次分析法及模糊评估法获取,改进的方法适用于证据间出现高度冲突的情况。实例分析表明了变压器运行状态层次评估模型的有效性。

Condition assessment is the foundation of condition based maintenance of power transformers. On the ba sis of rational partition of transformer condition and uncertainty of condition assessment indices, an operation condi tion assessment model and an improved evidential reasoning （ER） assessment approach for the transformer are pres ented. The initial basic probability assignment of evidence is accessed by means of analytic hierarchy process （AHP） and fuzzy evaluation method. The newly approved method is applied to the case of conflicting evidence. The results of an example analysis test its effectiveness.