吉林省永吉县肿瘤分布地区聚集性分析

Clustering Analysis of District Distribution of Cancer in yongji County Jilin Province

本文收集了该县350个村1984～1986年人口及各种恶性肿瘤死亡资料,用普洼松模型(poissonmodel)拟合,检验该地恶性肿瘤地区分布是否随机。分析结果表明该县肿瘤分布存在明显的地区聚集性。又将各村按近江、远江分为两组分别分析。结果近江组聚集性明显,而远江组未显现聚集现象。且发现水稻种植面积所占比例较高的乡肿瘤死亡水平也较高。这种差异可能与距江远近、水质、粮食、蔬菜及水生生物污染程度,并通过食物链对人群的影响程度有关。

The second Songhua river has been polluted by industrial waste water for more than 30 years. 22 tounships and 350. villages of Yongji just locate at the section Polluted most severely. Using fitting method of Poisson model, we studied the clustering feature of death distribution of malignant tumor occured in the period from 1984 to 1986 in whole county of 540 thousand people, In order to eliminate influence of village with high or low death level on study population, population of each village was converted into relevant sampled unit as observed unit. The fitting of poi-sson model showed that there was an abvious clustering phenominon in cancer distribution in this county and the phenbminon existed only in villages which were near the river, neverthless the village far, from the river accorded with Poisson distribution. 22 tounships were divided into dfferent groups according to the area of paddy field to analyse the death level of cancer. It was found that the death level of cancer is to ralated area of paddy field, mortality of cancer in village with large area of paddy field was higher than that with small one ( P<0.05 ) . According to the distribution of carcinogen, results of the study indicated that pollutants in the second river, espe-cially 50 kinds of amine compound, nitro compound and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon and so on, effected on exposed popu-lation through food chain formed by water, soil, aquatic organisms and crops.Biological effects varied with degree of exposure. It showed the relationship between occurence of cancer and environmental pollution.