Sensitivity of Penman-Monteith Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in Tao'er River Basin of Northeastern China

A non-dimensional relative sensitivity coefficient was employed to predict the responses of reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) to perturbation of four climate variables in Tao'er River Basin of the northeastern China. Mean monthly ET0 and yearly ET0 from 1961 to 2005 were estimated with the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith Equation. A 45-year historical dataset of average monthly maximum/minimum air temperature, mean air temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours and relative humidity from 15 meteorological stations was used in the analysis. Results show that: 1) Sensitivity coefficients of wind speed, air temperature and sunshine hours were positive except for those of air tem- perature of Arxan Meteorological Station, while those of relative humidity were all negative. Relative humidity was the most sensitive variable in general for the Tao'er River Basin, followed by sunshine hours, wind speed and air tem- perature. 2) Similar to climate variable, monthly sensitivity coefficients exhibit large annual fluctuations. 3) Sensitivity coefficients for four climate variables all showed significant trends in seasonal/yearly series. Also, sensitivity coefficients of air temperature, sunshine hours and wind speed all showed significant trends in spring. 4) Among all sensitiv- ity coefficients, the average yearly sensitivity coefficient of relative humidity was highest throughout the basin and showed largest spatial variability. Longitudinal distribution of sensitivity coefficients for air temperature, relative hu- midity and sunshine hours was also found, which was similar to the distribution of the three climate variables.