中国与东盟10国双边农产品贸易流量与贸易潜力的分析——基于贸易引力模型的研究

A Study on the Flow and Potentiality of Bilateral Agricultural Products Trade between China and ASEAN-Based on Trade Gravity Model

贸易引力模型是对国际贸易进行实证分析的重要方法。本文以传统引力模型为基础,并结合中国与东盟国家的实际情况建立模型,定量分析中国与东盟10国农产品贸易的状况。通过对模型的实证检验,得出影响中国与东盟10国双边农产品贸易流量的因素主要有GDP总量、人口数量、空间距离和制度安排等。在此基础上预测了中国与各国的贸易潜力,得出中国与东盟多数国家之间存在"贸易不足",认为双边农产品贸易发展潜力巨大,并提出了相应的政策建议。

The trade gravity model is a vital method to do quantitative analysis on international trade. Based on traditional gravity model and combining with the actual conditions of China and ASEAN, this paper establishes the model to analyze agricultural products trade between China and ASEAN. Through empirical test, the results indicate that the main factors that have influence to bilateral trade flow are GDP, populations, space distance and trade agreements. The paper also predicts the trade potentiality, and draws the conclusion that their agricultural products trades display inadequate potential and there are huge potentialities of development. Finally, the paper proposes some relevant policy suggestions.