人口红利、财富积累与经济增长

Demographic Dividend,Wealth Accumulation and Economic Growth

文章从消费者行为出发,以生命周期假说为分析前提,研究消费者在老龄化的过程中如何积累财富,并对这些消费者行为加总进一步研究社会财富的积累,分析财富增加和劳动力数量下降这一特征事实下的经济增长路径。在理论研究和经验分析的基础上,作者认为判断人口老龄化是否对经济增长造成影响,不能仅从劳动力供给数量上分析,应综合考虑资本、劳动力等因素的变化。通过研究,本文得出的结论是人口老龄化未必使经济增长速度放缓。

With the life cycle assumption,this paper studies consumers increasing wealth in their aging processes,examines the accumulation of societal wealth by aggregating consumers' behavior,and analyses economic growth under the circumstance of wealth increase and labor force decrease.On the basis of theoretical research and empirical analysis,the author argues that to judge whether population aging affects economic growth,more factors such as capital and labor should be taken into consideration instead of single labor supply analysis.This paper concludes that population aging may not necessarily slow down the economic growth.