房地产市场价格的内生变动特征分析:以住房市场为例

Real estate industry market price’s inner cnage cnaracterlstlcs analysis:take housing market as example

本文从住房资产的消费和投资的二重性出发,分析了住房资产市场的内在特征,进而揭示了住房市场价格的内生波动特征。本文的结论是:尽管根据一般均衡理论,实现住房市场(或更一般地讲整个房地产市场)竞争性的市场均衡价格意味着效率最大,但是,由住房资产及其市场的内生特征破坏了住房价格趋向均衡的过程,因此住房市场价格的内生波动必然偏离均衡状态。这个结论也很容易推演至整个房地产市场。这一结论的政策含义是:在监测住房市场价格波动时,必须在充分考虑住房市场内在特征的基础上,以一般均衡理论为参照系,寻找能够逐渐接近住房市场一般价格均衡的条件和途径,而不是试图实现住房市场的价格均衡。

This paper embarks from the duality of the housing property＇s consumption ana the investment, analyzes the intrinsic characteristic of the housing property market, then promulgates the enaogenous fluctuation characteristic of the housing market price. This conclusion is： Although according to the General Equilibrium Theory, it means that the efficiency is biggest which realizes the competitive market equilibrium price in the housing market （or the entire real estate market ir general）, but, it aestroyed the process that home price trends balanced whicr the housing property and the market endogenous enaracteristic, therefore the housing market price＇s enaogenous fluctuation deviates inevitably the eauilibrium state. This conclusion is also very easy to deduce to the entire real estate market. The policy meaning of the conclusion is： When monitors the housing market price fluctuation, in the foundation of the full consideration housing market intrinsic characteristic, taking the General Eaui- librium Theory as the reference system, we must seeks can approach the condition and way that the housing market regular price balancing gradually, but is not attempts to realize the housing market price eauilibrium.