摘要
在已有灰色系统理论的基础上,讨论了GM(1,1)模型的适用域,明确界定了GM(1,1)模型的有效区域和禁区,并提出了GM(1,1)模型的一种改进形式——离散灰色预测DGM(1,1)模型.通过对我国经济增长的实证分析说明了该模型的有效性和可靠性.研究结果表明,提出的DGM(1,1)模型可作为灰色预测的一种精确模型,因此,为我国经济增长预测提供了一种新的方法,对当前我国经济的理性增长具有重要的指导意义.
The Region Suitable for GM （1,1） has been discussed in this paper based on the grey system theories. The region of validity and the prohibited region of GM （1,1） have been divided clearly. A kind of improving form Discrete GM （1,1 ） Model of grey forecasting model GM （1,1） has been put forward, and the model＇s effectiveness and reliance have been illustrated with the living example of forecasting of economic growth in our country. Research results show, DGM （1,1） model can be considered as the precise form of grey forecasting model. Providing a kind of new method for forecasting of economic growth in our country, it has important guiding significance for rational economic growth in our country.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第22期58-63,共6页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
关键词
GM(1
1)
适用域
DGM(1
1)
变化系数
经济增长
GM（1,1） model
regionsuitableforGM（1,1） model
DGM（1, 1）
the changing coefficients
economic growth
