石河子初霜冻灰色马尔柯夫链预测模型及其应用

The Calculating Pattern of First Frost of Grey Markov Chain Analysis in Shihezi

用灰色马尔柯夫予测方法，对石河子初霜冻出现时间进行了分析预测，结果表明，１９９６年预测初霜冻出现在１０月７日，与实况１０月５日十分相近。

The article not only analyses the Grey calculation mainly, but also the advantage and disadvantage of Markov chain analysis.It combines them organicly and forms the way --the Gey Markov chain analysis,they have more widely useful fields and much higher calculating precision.Taking the example of calculating the first frost in Shihezi,the result shows the analysis is accurate.