房地产投资对经济增长效应及区域性差异的研究

Research on Regional Disparity of Real Estate Investment and Economic Growth in China

利用动态经济计量模型,分析全国及东、中和西部地区房地产投资与经济增长之间的协整关系、Granger因果关系;通过建立误差修正模型,分析各区域房地产投资对经济增长的不同推动作用和推动效率。研究表明,我国房地产投资与经济增长之间具有同向的相关关系,房地产投资对推动经济增长有积极作用,但房地产投资与区域经济的因果关系因区域不同而有差异。

The co- integration test and Granger- causality Test between the real estate investment and economic growth in the east region, middle region and west region of China were analyzed based on the dynamic econometric model. An econometrical error correction model was developed to demonstrate their long - term balance and short - term fluctuations. The empirical result shows that there exist some correlation between the investment of the real estate and the economic growth.. The investment of real estate has positive effect on the promotion of the economic growth. However the causality relationship between the investment of real estate and the regional economic growth varies with different regions.