公共交通改善期望对住房价格及其价格空间结构的影响——基于杭州地铁规划的实证研究

THE EFFECTS OF EXPECTED TRANSPORT IMPROVEMENTS ON HOUSING PRICES AND PRICE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION——HANGZHOU-BASED RESEARCH EVIDENCE OF PLANNING THE MASS TRANSIT RAILWAY

以杭州地铁项目为例,基于大样本住房交易跨期综列数据,构建扩展的特征价格模型,通过比较期望交通改善和非改善区域在地铁项目传言、立项前后住房价格的变化,分析了公共交通改善期望对附近住房价格及其价格空间结构的影响。研究结果显示,公共交通改善期望对住房价格和价格空间结构具有明显的影响效应,且影响效应具有空间性和时间性。从空间上看,期望交通改善对基础设施较为薄弱的远郊区影响最为明显,而对于繁华的市区影响却不显著。从时间上看,地铁开始传言和地铁规划批准使得远郊和近郊住房价格有较大的上涨,且地铁规划获批准后的增值效应更为明显。

Improvements in public transport were commonly found to have a positive effect on the price of housing. However, there have been few investigations of expected transport improvements. This paper is an empirical study of whether premiums were paid for the expected benefits offered by Hangzhou rail transit before its completion. Based on a large sample of housing transactions intertem- poral pooling data, using extended hedonic pricing model, our empirical study showed there were positive price expectation effects in the suburb well before the crmpletion of the line, but no significant effects in the town. House prices in the suburb were being affected by proximity to the stations after the plans for the line were well known. So this affected the price gradient of properties along the transportation line.