基于主成分回归分析法的新疆农业经济增长影响因素评价

Evaluation of the Influential Factors on the Agricultural Economic Growth in Xinjiang Based on the Principal Components Regression Analysis

本文利用C-D生产函数的拓展形式建立农业经济增长模型。基于1990年-2006年时间序列数据及2006年县域数据对新疆农业劳动力、耕地、技术、投资等对农业经济增长的影响进行定量分析。实证分析结果表明，从时间序列数据分析得出的主要影响因素是劳动力和耕地面积等传统因素；从截面数据分析得出劳动力投入、农业技术进步（包括化肥使用、灌溉等）、政府财政对农业的支出等是影响新疆农业经济增长的重要因素。

From the perspective of the regional development, by using C - D production function of the expansion to establish agricultural economic growth model, based on the 1990 -2006 time -series data, and 2006 county data concerning agricultural labor, land, technology, investment in Xinjiang, a quantitative analysis was made with respect to influence on agricultural economic growth. The findings indicated that the major influential factors from the time series data analysis are such traditional factors as labor forces and cultivated area, and the major influential factors affecting the growth of agricultural economy in Xin-jiang from the crosssection data analysis are the labor force investment, the agricultural technology progress （including chemical fertilizer use, irrigation, and so on）, the government finance. Based on this, the paper makes recommendations on accelerating the growth of the agricultural economy in Xinjiang .