基于SLEUTH模型的东莞市区城市增长模拟研究

Study on Urban Growth Simulation of Dongguan City Based on SLEUTH Model

应用SLEUTH城市增长模型,借助GIS、RS技术,对东莞市区1990-2003年的城市增长过程进行模拟,同时预测2003-2030年城市增长情况。结果表明,SLEUTH模型较好地描述了东莞市区"自下而上"的城市增长模式,在这种增长模式下,未来东莞市区的城市化水平将在10～20 a内达到临界状态。研究结果对于理解东莞市区城市增长的内在规律具有理论和现实指导意义,同时可为政府制定相关决策提供依据。

Based on SLEUTH model and technology of GIS and RS, the process of urban growth of Dongguan city from 1990 to 2003 was simulated, and then the form of urban growth of Dongguan city from 2003 to 2030 was predicted. The result illuminated that SLEUTH model could depict urban growth mode of Dongguan city ＂From Bottom To Up＂. Under this mode, the study area would reach critical state of urbanization between 10 and 20 years. It would helpful to understanding the inner rule of urban growth on theoretic and practice and also provide useful information for city planner to make policy.