吉林西部土地利用/覆被时空变化驱动力分析

Driving force analysis of land use and land cover temporal-spatial change in the west of Jilin province

针对吉林西部土地利用/覆被情况,基于TM影像,借助人机交互解译方法,结合1∶10万地形图获得1986年、1996年、2000年和2004年的4期土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)矢量数据,利用土地利用动态度模型、土地利用转移矩阵,全面揭示研究区15年的LUCC时空变化特征,结果表明,盐碱地扩张,湿地、水域萎缩和草地退化已经成为吉林西部生态环境恶化的突出表现。结合研究区的实际情况选取总人口数、农业人口数、粮食总产量等12个指标作为LUCC变化的社会经济驱动因子,借助多元线性回归模型,建立主要土地利用类型的驱动力模型,结果表明吉林西部土地利用变化的最主要社会经济因子是农业人口数、农民人均纯收入、农业生产技术(农业机械总动力、化肥施用量)和农村用电量,同时提出相应的生态环境保护和社会经济措施。

According to the land use station in the west of Jilin Province, based on the TM phantom, with the aid of the man-machine interaction interpretation method, unified 1 ： 100 000 topographic diagrams, the land use/cover change （LUCC） vector data of 1986, 1996, 2000 and 2004 four issues were obtained. This paper applied land use dynamic degree model and the land use transfer matrix to promulgate the LUCC spatio-temporal change characteristic comprehensively in the research area during 15 years. The result indicated that the saline and alkali land expanded, the wetland, the waters shrunk and the lawn degenerated, which had already became the prominent performance of ecological environment worsened in the west of Jilin Province. Combining with the the research area＇s actual situation, we selected the total population, the agricultural population, the grain ultimate and so on 12 targets to take the LUCC change the social economy actuation factor, with the aid of the multi-dimensional linear regression model method, established the main land utilization type the driving influence model. The result indicated that the primary factors of LUCC were the agricultural population, Net income per capita, agricultural production technology（agricultural machinery gross power, fertilizer application amount）and rural electricity usage. In the same time, the paper proposed the corresponding ecological environmental protection and the social economy measure.