面向可持续发展的佛山市水资源优化配置

Optimal allocation of water resources in southern humid area for sustainable development: A case study in Foshan City of Guangdong Province

以水资源的可持续开发利用为目标,以二元动态水循环模式为基础,考虑工程供水能力、防洪、压咸、河道内生态需水等约束,采用大系统“分解协调”原理,运用逐步宽容约束法及递阶分析法,通过佛山市水库、河道及区间径流联合调度,建立了面向可持续发展的水资源优化配置模型。在1956～2000年月时段来水条件下,对2030规划水平年水资源进行优化调配,得出各用水户在长系列调算后多年平均配置结果。结果表明,佛山市总的水资源量丰富,可满足2030年的用水需求,但现状工程供水规模不足,不能较好地满足2030年需水要求,因此需要采取开源和节流措施来保障规划水平年的供水安全,从而保障佛山市的可持续发展。

Using the sustainable utilization of water resources as the objective and the water supply capacities of waterworks as well as flood and salinity control and eco-envimnmental water demand of rivers as the constraints, an optimal model for allocating water resources in Foshan City was built on the basis of the integrated regulation of reservoirs and rivers, the dualistic dynamic model of the water cycle, the theory of decomposition and coordination of large-scale systems, the methods of hierarchical analysis, and step-by-step toleration obligation. The mean annual water amount available for each water user in 2030 was predicted by optimally allecating water resources using monthly water input data from 1956 to 2000. The results show that the total quantity of water resources is abundant in Foshan City and can meet water demand in 2030, but, as for sustainable development, some measures for increasing water supply and water conservation must be taken to ensure the security of the water supply in the future due to the limited amount of water provided by the present waterworks.